The scene is being set for a turbulent year in the tropics, one that could approach a record-setting pace that may exhaust the entire list of names for tropical storms and hurricanes — and then some.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway on June 1 and runs through the end of November, and AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters say now is the time to prepare for a frenzy of tropical systems.
There are signs that the first named system could spin up before the season kicks off as the calendar flips to June, a precursor of what’s to come.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.
This echoes the early warning AccuWeather issued in late February, ringing the alarm bells about the potential for a surge in tropical activity.
Last hurricane season featured 19 named storms, but there were only four direct U.S. impacts. Hurricane Idalia was the storm of the year, which slammed into Florida as a powerful Category 3 hurricane in late August.
Additionally, Tropical Storm Harold drenched southern Texas, and Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall in North Carolina. Lee also swiped the New England coast as a tropical rainstorm before making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
All signs continue to point toward the upcoming season being worse than the last, with the potential for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to rank as one of the most active in history.
Warm water is fuel for tropical systems, and there will be plenty of warm water for fledgling systems to tap into and strengthen.
“Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes],” DaSilva explained.
The Atlantic water temperatures observed in March were around or even warmer than they were in March ahead of the blockbuster 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons.
