Now they are trying to tell us that China’s ease on COVID-19 restrictions could cause one million deaths this Winter

(OPINION) Chinese authorities appeared to bend to the will of the people on Wednesday by easing some of the harshest COVID-19 restrictions, but a new study showed the high price the country will pay if it tries to reopen too fast.

Asian macroeconomic advisory firm, Wigram Capital Advisors, is warning of a “winter wave” of COVID infections that could swamp the healthcare system, according to a report in the Financial Times, which reviewed the firm’s models.

Wigram, which takes into account vaccinations and age data in its modelings that it has provided to governments throughout the pandemic, is predicting a death toll of 20,000 a day by mid-March in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, with daily hospitalizations peaking at 70,000.

The advisory firm is warning that the government has done nothing to prepare the country for a reopening that does not progress cautiously. That’s against the backdrop of a still-low vaccination rate for the elderly, a shortage of intensive care units and vaccines that lack the potency of western rivals.

In addition, the Lunar New Year holiday in January could prove a super spreader event for China, Wigram warned. “The risk is that they are underestimating just how much work — and cost — the rest of the world has done and borne to get to the point of living with Covid,” said Rodney Jones, principal at the firm.

In a series of new measures, the National Health Commission on Wednesday announced that COVID-19 tests and proof of health on cellphones will now only be required for nurseries, facilities for the elderly and schools. Lockdowns will be limited to apartment floors and individual buildings, individuals can isolate at home, and schools without outbreaks have been ordered to reopen.

The easing comes after recent protests across major cities and in some industrial areas, such as Zhengzhou, the home of one of Apple’s AAPL, -1.25% biggest iPhone manufacturer. An International Monetary Fund official said Tuesday that the country’s economic outlook has “darkened noticeably,” due in part to lockdowns.

Wigram argued that a more controlled reopening of the economy through next August would see a daily death toll of only 4,000 and total hospitalizations peaking at 200,000, rather than 500,000 in a winter wave. (SOURCE)