The Cascadia fault off the Pacific Northwest coast is poised for a massive, 9.0-magnitude earthquake at some point, scientists say, a rupture that would propel a wall of water across much of the Northwest coast within minutes.
Low-lying coastal neighborhoods in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California would be under 10 feet or more of water, with the elementary school in Ocean Shores, Wash., facing an inundation that could be 23 feet deep. The second-floor refuge students rush to in their drills stands 13 feet off the ground — in a structure that was not built to withstand a raging tsunami in the first place.
“The fact of the matter is that if a tsunami occurs tomorrow, we are going to lose all of our children,” said Andrew Kelly, the superintendent of the North Beach School District, which includes Ocean Shores. Mr. Kelly is one of a growing number of local officials who are calling for a network of elevated buildings and platforms along the Northwest coast that could provide an escape for thousands of people who might otherwise be doomed in the event of a tsunami.
“The fact of the matter is that if a tsunami occurs tomorrow, we are going to lose all of our children,” said Andrew Kelly, superintendent of the North Beach School District, which includes Ocean Shores. Kelly is one of a growing number of officials who are calling for a network of elevated buildings and platforms along the Northwest coast that could provide an escape for thousands of people who might otherwise be doomed in the event of a tsunami.
On Tuesday, voters in Ocean Shores and neighboring communities will decide whether to approve a bond measure that would, in part, build new vertical additions at two schools, offering students and nearby residents a place to flee from a surging ocean. Scientists have been warning for years that another catastrophic quake could erupt at any time in the Cascadia subduction zone, a 600-mile-long “megathrust” fault that stretches from Vancouver Island, British Columbia, to Cape Mendocino, California.
A quake from the fault, located roughly 70 miles offshore, could cause land along the shore to immediately drop by several feet. The sudden movement under the sea would send massive waves toward shore.
And while recent tsunamis caused by earthquakes and volcanoes in the Pacific Rim have resulted in small surges on the West Coast of the United States hours later, a Cascadia wave would arrive at shorelines within 15 minutes. Along many stretches of the Northwest coast, there are no bluffs or high buildings to climb — nowhere to go.
The lack of evacuation options means that the death toll could be almost unfathomable, far surpassing any other natural disaster in U.S. history. In Washington State, according to a 9.0 scenario the state uses for its estimates, about 70,000 people would likely be within the lowlands that could be engulfed by a large tsunami, and 32,000 of them would have no nearby high ground to escape to within 15 minutes.
