Israel’s strike on Iran on Friday morning will not come as a surprise to Western observers – but it will cause great concern in Washington and London as the region tips closer toward an all-out war.
Following Iran’s attack on Israel on April 13, itself a response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate, Israel was clear a response would be required.
That night, Joe Biden talked down Benjamin Netanyahu from launching an immediate response, warning him that America would not support or join in any offense against Iran.
The president reportedly told the Israeli leader to “take the win” from his stunningly effective air defenses, which restricted the effect of the Iranian strikes to a damaged plane and a battered runway.
However, Mr Netanyahu’s colleagues have not heeded that advice universally.
Israel’s war cabinet has since been locked in negotiations about the timing, scope and location of a military response.
For some “doves” in the Israeli government, the risk of an all-out war with Iran was too great.
Tehran has vowed to respond in kind to any attack on its territory, plunging the two countries into a series of retaliatory strikes that would escalate the situation beyond either’s control.
But for the Israeli “hawks”, a direct missile and drone attack on home soil after months of Iranian support for Islamist proxy groups was one provocation too great.
Mr Netanyahu has now done what Mr Biden, other G7 leaders, and the UN warned him not to do.
He has further provoked a hostile and unpredictable regional power with uncertain nuclear capabilities.
For years, Iran and Israel have existed in a state of cold war, driven by Tehran’s support for Israel’s enemies close to home.
However, the events of the early hours of Friday morning make a hot war between the two countries a realistic possibility for the first time.
Unlike other recent conflicts in the Middle East, a war between Iran and Israel would pit two of the region’s superpowers in direct conflict.
