Although the United States is bracing for retaliatory Russian cyberattacks, experts in the field say the Kremlin is likely still weighing whether destructive action in cyberspace is worth the blowback.

Russia has shown cyber restraint, at least for the moment, even as the West imposes sanctions that have quickly strangled its economy and targeted government leaders and oligarchs.

“The question is not ‘can Russia carry out cyberattacks against Europe or the United States,’ ” said Melissa Griffith, a senior program associate with the science and technology innovation program at The Wilson Center.

“The question is ‘what would Russia have to gain from and what would they risk by carrying out cyberattacks against the United States and Europe.’


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” Griffith added that intentionally crippling U.S. critical infrastructure through a cyberattack is “risky and unwise” as the U.S. prepares to take countermeasures against Russia, such as imposing further economic sanctions.

Aside from a handful of denial of service attacks and wiper malware that deletes data, the Kremlin’s formidable hacker army has remained relatively quiet since the invasion.

 

But don’t expect Russian restraint to last, said Chris Krebs, partner at the Krebs Stamos Group and former head of CISA.

As the West’s economic sanctions intensify and damage Russia’s economy, Krebs explained, “you may see retaliation where the Russian government says,
‘Hey, you’re hitting our banks, so we’re gonna go hit your banks.’ It could be different techniques or even different actors, outside of official agencies” like ransomware gangs.