With two Category 4 hurricanes – Aletta and Bud – forming in roughly four days in the eastern Pacific Ocean, you may be wondering if we’re in for another active Atlantic hurricane season as well. The short answer: It’s unclear, according to our analysis of past similar quick eastern Pacific season starts. In reliable records dating to 1971, NOAA’s historical hurricane database has 10 other years in which the first two named storms in the eastern Pacific basin were hurricanes: 2015, 2011, 1999, 1996,
1995, 1990, 1983, 1976, 1973 and 1971. Admittedly, this is by no means a large sample size for any statistical study. In those 10 years, the average number of Atlantic named storms (12.3), hurricanes (6.6), and major hurricanes (2.8 Category 3 or stronger) almost exactly matched the 30-year average from 1981-2010 of 13, 7 and 3. Of course, averages mask extremes. There was quite a range in the number of named storms, from a mere 4 in 1983 to 19 in both 1995 and 2011, and in hurricanes from 3 in 1983 to 11 in 1995. CONTINUE
