In a recent escalation of tensions between the United States and Mexico, President Donald Trump has accused Mexico of “stealing” water from Texas farmers, threatening to impose tariffs and potentially sanctions to address the issue.

The claims, which center on Mexico’s alleged violation of a decades-old water-sharing agreement, have sparked debates about trade, diplomacy, and resource management along the U.S.-Mexico border.

According to Reuters, Trump made the allegations in a post on Truth Social, asserting that Mexico’s failure to deliver water owed to the United States under the 1944 Treaty on the Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande constitutes theft.

The treaty requires Mexico to deliver an average of 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. every five years from the Rio Grande for agricultural and municipal use, primarily in Texas.

Trump’s statement suggested that Mexico’s shortfall—reportedly over 400,000 acre-feet in the current cycle—has caused significant harm to Texas farmers, particularly in the drought-stricken Rio Grande Valley.

The Washington Post noted that Trump’s threats come amid ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico to address the water deficit.

Texas officials have long complained that Mexico’s delays in water deliveries exacerbate the region’s water scarcity, forcing farmers to fallow fields or reduce crop yields.

The Post quoted Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, who supported Trump’s stance, arguing that Mexico’s inconsistent deliveries violate the treaty and threaten the livelihoods of farmers in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

However, Mexican officials have countered that their own water shortages, driven by prolonged droughts and domestic demand, limit their ability to comply fully with the agreement.

CNN reported that Trump’s proposed tariffs could target Mexican agricultural exports, such as avocados and tomatoes, which are significant to the U.S. market.

Analysts warned that such measures could raise food prices for American consumers and strain relations with Mexico, a key trading partner under the USMCA trade agreement.

The network also highlighted concerns from environmental groups, who argue that the water dispute reflects broader issues of climate change and over-allocation of Rio Grande water on both sides of the border.

“This isn’t just about Mexico,” said Jennifer Peña, an environmental policy expert quoted by CNN. “Both countries need to rethink how we manage a shrinking resource.”

The Wall Street Journal provided additional context, noting that the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which oversees the treaty’s implementation, has been working to mediate the dispute.

The IBWC has acknowledged Mexico’s delivery shortfalls but emphasized that the treaty allows for flexibility, such as carrying deficits into the next cycle during drought years.

The Journal reported that Mexico has proposed alternative solutions, including transferring water from Mexican reservoirs, but U.S. officials, backed by Trump’s rhetoric, are pushing for stricter enforcement.

Fox News framed Trump’s threats as part of a broader critique of the Biden administration’s handling of border and trade issues.

The outlet cited Trump’s comments blaming previous administrations for failing to hold Mexico accountable, with the former president vowing to “escalate consequences” until compliance is achieved.

Posts on X echoed this sentiment, with some users praising Trump’s hardline approach while others questioned the feasibility of sanctions, given the economic interdependence between the two nations.

The New York Times explored the diplomatic ramifications, suggesting that Trump’s rhetoric risks inflaming tensions at a time when U.S.-Mexico cooperation is critical on issues like migration and drug trafficking.

The Times cited a statement from Mexico’s Foreign Ministry, which called for “mutual respect” and emphasized Mexico’s efforts to meet treaty obligations despite “unprecedented” drought conditions.

The article also noted that some Texas farmers, while frustrated, worry that tariffs could disrupt cross-border agricultural trade, which benefits both economies.

Bloomberg added an economic perspective, estimating that tariffs on Mexican goods could cost U.S. consumers billions annually, given Mexico’s role as the second-largest supplier of agricultural imports to the U.S.

The outlet also highlighted the political dimension, with Trump’s threats seen as an appeal to rural voters in Texas ahead of future elections. However, Bloomberg quoted trade experts who cautioned that unilateral sanctions could violate USMCA rules, potentially triggering retaliatory measures from Mexico.