(OPINION) Can you believe that we are less than a week away from Election Day? Over 57 million Americans have already voted, and in some states more than half of the total expected vote is already in.
So it may already be too late for a last minute surprise to alter the outcome of the election. In 2020, Democrats absolutely dominated the early voting period, but in 2024 things are very close between Democrats and Republicans.
Is this an indication that a “red landslide” is coming, or are Republicans simply shifting votes that would have been cast on Election Day into the early voting period? We will soon find out. In any event, the following are 8 major election developments that everyone needs to know about…
#1 The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that the state of Virginia can purge approximately 1,600 non-citizens from its voter rolls…
The Supreme Court on Wednesday allowed Virginia to move forward with its removal of roughly 1,600 alleged noncitizens from its voter rolls just days before the 2024 election.
The high court granted a request from state officials to pause a lower court order that blocked Virginia from continuing its voter removal program that was launched in August, exactly 90 days before Election Day. A provision of the National Voter Registration Act requires states to complete programs aimed at purging ineligible voters from registration lists up to 90 days before federal elections.
#2 There were reports that officials in Bucks County, Pennsylvania had been turning away on-demand mail ballot voters early. Now a judge in Bucks Country has extended on-demand mail ballot voting until Friday, and this is considered to be a major victory for the Trump campaign…
Bucks County Judge Jeffrey Trauger has ordered the Bucks County Board of Elections to extend its on-demand mail-in ballot deadline until “the close of business” on Friday, Nov. 1.
The Wednesday afternoon ruling stems from a lawsuit filed several hours earlier by former President Donald Trump’s campaign and other state and national GOP groups claiming Bucks County illegally turned away voters.
The filing with the Bucks County Court of Common Pleas, posted online late Wednesday morning, alleges that the county violated the state’s election laws by not allowing some voters to use the “on-demand mail-ballot” option in the final hours of the mail-in ballot application at 5 p.m. Oct. 29.
#3 In Wisconsin, turnout in the conservative counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington is far higher than turnout in the liberal bastion of Dane County…
The conservative “WOW” counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington have increased their turnout advantage over liberal Dane County up to 12.16%. Dane’s turnout advantage going into Election Day 2020 was 0.9%. This represents a 13% turnout swing compared to ‘20.
#4 In Arizona, Republicans are doing a much better job of turning out “low propensity voters” than Democrats are…
A look at AZ voter frequency scores shows that Democrats are trailing Republicans by a couple of points in the zero, one, and two buckets, turning out more of their 3/3 voters.
It’s not an excellent combination for available votes down the stretch, so Republicans are likely to outvote Democrats by 300,000+.
#5 Abortion is on the ballot in both Arizona and Nevada, and this was supposed to be a major advantage for Kamala Harris in those states. But it turns out that vast numbers of pro-abortion voters are going to vote for Trump anyway…
While an Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted in October found that 68 percent of voters in Arizona and 80 percent of voters in Nevada say they planned to support their state’s abortion referendum, the same poll showed Harris narrowly behind Trump in Arizona and tied in Nevada. Harris’s support among likely voters in the poll was 46 percent in Arizona to Trump’s 49 percent, and they both had 48 percent support in Nevada.
Meanwhile, Trump — who has claimed credit for Roe’s reversal — has been working to assuage the concerns of independent and Republican voters who support abortion rights.
In recent weeks, the former president has promised to veto a national abortion ban, after repeatedly refusing to make such a pledge. While he has maintained that each state should choose its own abortion laws, he said in a recent town hall geared toward women voters that many of the current bans are “too tough.”
Republican and independent voters who plan to split their ticket on abortion — voting for an abortion referendum and for Trump — said they were willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt on the issue, with some feeling reassured by his recent promises not to crack down further on abortion.
#6 As I discussed yesterday, it appears that the Harris campaign may be giving up on the swing state of North Carolina. So far, Democrats in the state have cast over 300,000 fewer votes than they did at the same stage of the 2020 early voting period…
According to AdImpact, a political intelligence firm, on Monday the Harris-Walz campaign reserved $2.7 million worth of ads in North Carolina for the last stretch of the campaign, only to turn around and kill more than $2 million of its reservations on Tuesday.
Though Harris is following through on a scheduled Raleigh rally on Wednesday morning — while Trump is holding his own event in Rocky Mount, NC — her campaign managers’ hopes of winning North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes have likely plunged as daily updates of early voting numbers continue to paint a grim picture of her prospects in the Tar Heel State.
The 2020 vs 2024 contrast in early voting patterns is striking. Compared to the same time four years ago, North Carolina Democrats have cast 341,000 fewer votes, while Republicans have cast 9,000 more, noted Andy Jackson of the Raleigh-based John Locke Foundation.
Aside from the party mix, North Carolina is also seeing lower turnout among two traditional Democratic voter blocs: young people and blacks. In 2020, 92% of the state’s black voters backed Biden. Across the country, however, black support of Trump is surging.
#7 A television station in Pennsylvania is apologizing for broadcasting “randomly generated test results” that were meant to “help news organizations make sure their equipment is working properly in advance of election night”…
Test results for the upcoming November 5 general election mistakenly appeared on WNEP-TV early Sunday evening during a broadcast of the Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix.
Those numbers should not have appeared on the screen, and it was an error by WNEP that they did.
The numbers seen on the screen were randomly generated test results sent out to help news organizations make sure their equipment is working properly in advance of election night. (READ MORE)
