Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene struck Florida’s Big Bend, Milton is threatening to do the same, but given the state’s distinctive coastline, the angle of landfall could allow the new storm system to be the worst in over 100 years for parts of west-central Florida.
The area is certainly storm-weary, having recently experienced impacts from Helene, Debby, Ian and Idalia. However, the FOX Forecast Center warns that the unique angle of approach makes the situation similar to what emergency managers have dreaded but prepared for over decades.
During Helene, communities south of Florida’s Big Bend experienced a storm surge of 5-8 feet on average, which was on the lower side of the spectrum due to the wind direction and the distance from the core of the Category 4 hurricane.
A track that sends a hurricane over or just to the north of the Tampa-Sarasota metro means significantly more water will be piled up compared to previous cyclones.
“The West Coast of Florida is spectacularly vulnerable to storm surge, as we have seen. Even a tropical storm can push Gulf water to dangerous heights, let alone a strong hurricane.
It’s critical that everybody in Central and South Florida stay well-informed since things are developing quickly,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.
During a Category 3 hurricane, a storm surge model known as SLOSH, shows wide areas of Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties under feet of water.
Due to the topography of the shoreline, a water level rise of more than 9 feet can be expected if a major hurricane follows the worst-case scenario for the metro.
Trajectories significantly to the north or south of the metro lead to greatly altered outcomes, scenarios that some Floridians have experienced in recent years.
Hurricanes Idalia and Helene made landfall around 130 miles north of Tampa and produced storm surges on the order of 3-8 feet around the metro, due in part to the southerly flow.
On the flip side, Hurricane Ian in 2022 triggered a northeast flow over the region during its landfall near Fort Myers.
The hurricane’s winds actually caused a negative storm surge in Tampa Bay, with water levels receding by 5 to 8 feet.
