(OPINION) ETH – Bill McGuire, a professor of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at University College London is warning that California could be struck by an earthquake larger than 8.0 magnitude – otherwise known as “The Big One” – this year.
Mcguire recently spoke to Express-News, stating that he would not be surprised if a huge earthquake struck California this year as it has “been a while”. According to official reports, Around 234 earthquakes with magnitudes between 3.0 and 4.0 occur per year in California and Nevada, according to a recent three-year data sample.
The latest quake was a magnitude 4.0 earthquake that was reported yesterday at 10.04 am local time by the US Geological Survey (USGS). McGuire stressed that “It has been a while since a serious, damaging, earthquake hit California, so I would not be surprised to see one next year [2021].
“Whether it will qualify as the ‘big one’ depends upon what you regard as a big one. Mcguire said “Worst case is a magnitude 8 quake striking the Los Angeles area, killing thousands and costing in excess of $200 billion. “This is a very rare event, so not likely to happen in 2021, but again, not impossible.”
The last time a quake struck of that size was in San Francisco in 1906 killing around 3,000 people after ripping through 296 miles of the San Andreas fault line. According to John Vidale, director of the Southern California Earthquake Centre, there is no way of predicting when exactly the so-called ‘Big One’ will hit.
He said: “When we look at the history of the fault, we can see these big earthquakes have happened many times over the last few thousand years, so yeah, it’s an inevitability. “We just don’t know if it’s going to be now or two hundred years from now.
