Recently, the United States has raised concerns regarding Iran’s potential covert biological and chemical weapons programs. If these allegations are accurate, Iran may possess the capability to retaliate against Israeli or American targets in a lethal yet deniable manner.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported that Iran maintains a significant stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Typically, it is believed that reaching an enrichment level of 90 percent is necessary to develop a nuclear weapon.

This process could theoretically be completed within days, although actual weaponization would take a considerably longer duration.

Experts in weaponry have indicated that it is feasible to create a basic nuclear weapon using uranium enriched to 60 percent.

According to David Albright and Sarah Burkhard from the Institute for Science and International Security, “an enrichment level of 60 percent suffices to create a relatively compact nuclear explosive; further enrichment to 80 or 90 percent is not needed.”

Such a weapon could be deployed using a simple delivery system, such as an aircraft, shipping container, or truck, establishing Iran as a nuclear power.

Iran might opt to showcase a crude nuclear weapon in an effort to coerce Israel into ceasing military actions. There is also a risk of Iran deploying a “dirty bomb”—a conventional explosive used to disseminate radioactive materials.

Experts express concern over scenarios where a device could be detonated near important locations, such as the Israeli port of Haifa.

These factors are under consideration not only by Israeli authorities but also by the United States. It is widely believed that only the U.S. possesses munitions powerful enough to potentially destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordow.

In Washington, there is growing apprehension that the U.S. may escalate its military involvement to eliminate the threat posed by Fordow and disrupt Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

However, prominent figures like Ehud Barak, a former Israeli Prime Minister, argue there is no assurance that even an American-led strike could definitively hinder Iran’s nuclear program. Barak states, “The truth is, even the Americans cannot delay Iran’s arrival at nuclear weapons by more than a few months.”

Barak contends that the only definitive measure to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons would be for the U.S. and Israel to initiate a campaign against the regime itself until it is dismantled.

In contrast, former President Donald Trump has consistently advocated for a peacemaking role, urging both Iran and Israel to engage in negotiations.

In a recent address in Riyadh, he criticized the notion that military interventions can foster constructive change in the Middle East. It would represent a significant irony—and a serious policy misstep—if Trump were to be drawn into another conflict aimed at regime change in the region.