A large swath of the United States is facing a heightened risk of blackouts this summer, a perennial danger as electricity use soars and extreme weather tests the nation’s aging power grid, according to the regulatory authority that monitors the electricity system.

The seasonal electricity forecast warns that regional power grids extending from the Upper Midwest south through Texas may lack the power needed to meet all customer needs in the event of prolonged periods of high temperatures.

The shortfall, according to a new report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, a nonprofit organization dedicated to reducing risks to power networks, is driven in large part by a steep increase in projected electricity demand.

Power demand is sharply up since last summer, increasing at more than double the rate it did between 2023 and 2024.

The U.S. is now projected to need 10 gigawatts more electricity in the upcoming summer season than it did last summer — the equivalent amount of power it takes to keep the lights on in as many as 10 million homes.

As indicated by prior reports from federal and state regulators, the increase in electricity demand can be attributed to several factors.

A significant contributor to this demand is the rise of energy-intensive data centers and manufacturing facilities, which are consuming power at a rate that exceeds utilities’ capacity to bring new power generation facilities online.

Furthermore, extreme temperatures are resulting in heightened air-conditioning use in residential and commercial sectors, thereby creating considerable strain on electricity systems.

The report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) further highlights the complexities introduced by the transition to renewable energy sources.

Substantial amounts of wind and solar energy have been integrated into the grid in the past year; however, their intermittent nature poses challenges to the aging power infrastructure, potentially leading to instability.

Although the expansion of industrial-scale battery storage is aiding in this transition, the existing storage capacity remains insufficient to fully address the issue.

Simultaneously, the retirement of aging natural gas and coal plants exacerbates the challenges faced by regional power grids, particularly one that services fifteen states from North Dakota to Louisiana, where available power this summer is projected to be lower than in the previous year.

The NERC report states that, with increased demand and a reduction in reliable energy resources, this extensive power grid is at an elevated risk of experiencing reserve shortfalls during periods of peak demand or low resource generation.

Despite efforts by utilities to expedite the commissioning of new natural gas plants, the escalating demand for energy has outpaced their ability to respond effectively.

Compounding this issue are supply chain disruptions and transmission bottlenecks, resulting in the timeline for bringing new facilities online extending to three or four years.

Additionally, grid operators are encountering similar impediments concerning essential upgrades to the network of power lines and transformers that constitute the backbone of the U.S. electricity system.

The report cautions that shortages of parts, materials, and skilled technicians are causing delays in both the maintenance and installation of new transformers, further complicating efforts to meet growing energy demands.