(OPINION) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged as a polarizing figure on the global stage, balancing Turkey’s NATO membership with increasingly assertive foreign policies that challenge Western interests and Israel’s security.

His recent actions and rhetoric suggest a dangerous trajectory that could spark a broader regional conflict, particularly as he seeks to capitalize on a perceived alignment with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

If Trump hopes to maintain stability in the Middle East, his characterization of Erdoğan as a “friend” may prove insufficient to curb Turkey’s ambitions, especially concerning Israel.

Erdoğan’s hostility toward Israel has intensified in recent months, marked by inflammatory statements that echo the rhetoric of Hamas.

During Eid al-Fitr prayers at Istanbul’s Çamlıca Mosque on March 30, 2025, Erdoğan reportedly called for the “destruction of Zionist Israel,” invoking Allah’s name “Al-Qahhar” (the Dominator) to curse the Jewish state.

This provocative language, condemned by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar as antisemitic, aligns with Erdoğan’s long-standing support for Hamas, including financial and political backing since the October 7, 2023, war began.

Sa’ar warned that Erdoğan poses a threat not only to Israel but also to regional stability and his own citizens, citing Turkey’s crackdown on domestic dissent, such as the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Erdoğan’s anti-Israel stance is not merely rhetorical. Turkey’s actions in Syria, where it supports Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that ousted Bashar al-Assad, have raised alarms in Jerusalem.

Turkish-backed forces have clashed with U.S.-supported Kurdish groups, complicating the regional balance and threatening Israel’s northern border.

Erdoğan’s vision appears to extend beyond Syria, with some analysts suggesting he aims to restore a neo-Ottoman influence across the Middle East, positioning Turkey as a dominant Sunni power.

Erdoğan has navigated a delicate “balancing act” for over two decades, maintaining Turkey’s NATO membership while fostering ties with Russia, China, and Iran.

This “strategic autonomy” has allowed Turkey to expand its military presence in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus, while building a robust defense industry. However, the re-election of Donald Trump in 2025 introduces new complexities.

During Trump’s first term, U.S.-Turkey relations were strained, notably when Trump threatened to “destroy” Turkey’s economy over its military actions against U.S.-backed Kurds in Syria.

Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system led to its expulsion from the F-35 program in 2019, a decision that remains a point of contention.

Despite these tensions, Trump has recently praised Erdoğan as a “good leader” and “very smart,” signaling a potential warming of ties.

Trump’s appointment of Thomas Barrack, a close associate, as U.S. ambassador to Turkey, and his comments about resolving past disputes (such as the release of American pastor Andrew Brunson in 2018), suggest an intent to align Turkey and Israel under U.S. leadership to counter Iran.

However, Erdoğan’s ambitions may not align with Trump’s vision of a pacified Middle East. Turkey’s growing influence in post-Assad Syria, including its reported interest in Syrian airbases targeted by Israeli airstrikes in April 2025, has heightened tensions with Israel.

Erdoğan’s actions carry significant risks. His support for HTS and other Islamist groups in Syria could destabilize the region, particularly if these groups align with Turkey’s anti-Israel agenda.

Israeli airstrikes on Syrian targets, aimed at preventing Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah, have already drawn rare public statements from Turkish officials, indicating Ankara’s sensitivity to Israel’s actions.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has emphasized Turkey’s desire to avoid “military confrontations” with Israel, but the two nations are engaged in technical-level talks to manage escalating tensions.

Trump’s backing of Erdoğan, including his call for Israel to make “reasonable demands” in Syria, limits Israel’s ability to counter Turkey’s influence.

This dynamic could embolden Erdoğan to push further, potentially targeting Israel’s interests in Syria or beyond.

Congressional lawmakers in the U.S., such as Representatives Gus Bilirakis and Chris Pappas, have expressed skepticism about Turkey’s reliability as an ally, citing its authoritarian trends, aggression toward Israel, and continued possession of the S-400 system.

These concerns underscore the challenge of reintegrating Turkey into Western defense frameworks like the F-35 program.

To prevent a regional conflict, Trump must move beyond personal diplomacy with Erdoğan. The Turkish president’s actions suggest a willingness to exploit Trump’s desire for Middle East disengagement, potentially clashing with Israel over Syria or Gaza.

Erdoğan’s domestic challenges, including mass protests following İmamoğlu’s arrest, may also push him to deflect attention through foreign adventurism. A robust U.S. policy that holds Turkey accountable—potentially through sanctions or NATO pressure—could deter Erdoğan from destabilizing actions.

Israel, meanwhile, must prioritize its security red lines, such as preventing Iranian entrenchment in Syria, while navigating U.S. pressure to accommodate Turkey.

The broader international community, particularly NATO members, should recognize the risks posed by Erdoğan’s authoritarianism and regional ambitions, as highlighted by Israeli officials and U.S. lawmakers.

Without concerted efforts to restrain Turkey, Erdoğan’s pursuit of neo-Ottoman dominance could ignite a conflict that engulfs the Middle East.

The War of Gog and Magog, as described in Ezekiel 38 and 39, is a prophetic event in the Bible widely interpreted by Christian eschatologists as a future invasion of Israel by a coalition of nations led by a figure called “Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal” (Ezekiel 38:2-3).

This coalition, which attacks Israel after its people are regathered to their land, is defeated through divine intervention. Many scholars and theologians identify Turkey as a key participant in this coalition, associating biblical place names like Meshech, Tubal, and Gomer with regions in modern-day Turkey.

The geopolitical dynamics outlined in the rewritten article above provide a contemporary lens through which to explore Turkey’s potential role in this prophecy.

Ezekiel 38 lists several nations that join Gog’s coalition: Persia (Iran), Cush (Sudan or Ethiopia), Put (Libya), Gomer, and Beth-Togarmah, among others (Ezekiel 38:5-6).

Traditional interpretations, particularly within dispensationalist and premillennialist Christian theology, link the following names to Turkey:

Meshech and Tubal: These are often identified as ancient Anatolian regions, corresponding to areas in modern Turkey.

Some scholars associate Meshech with the Mushki people near the Black Sea and Tubal with the Tabal region in central Turkey. These areas were part of the Hittite and later Phrygian territories, now within Turkey’s borders.

Gomer: Identified with the Cimmerians, a nomadic people who inhabited parts of Anatolia (modern Turkey) around the 8th century BCE. Some interpretations link Gomer to the broader region of Turkey or its ancient inhabitants.

Beth-Togarmah: Translated as the “house of Togarmah,” this is associated with regions in eastern Anatolia, possibly near Armenia or Cappadocia, also within modern Turkey.

These identifications are not universally accepted, as some scholars propose alternative locations (e.g., Meshech and Tubal as regions in Russia). However, the Turkey-centric interpretation is prevalent in evangelical eschatology, supported by posts on X that explicitly name Turkey as Gomer in the Gog-Magog coalition.

The article highlights Turkey’s growing assertiveness under Erdoğan, which aligns with the characteristics of a nation that could participate in the Gog-Magog coalition.