In recent months, steak lovers across the United States have faced a harsh reality: the cost of their favorite cuts is climbing, and experts warn that relief may not be on the horizon.
A combination of shrinking cattle supplies and rising operational costs has sent beef prices to unprecedented levels, leaving restaurants and consumers grappling with the fallout.
The root of the issue lies in a significant reduction in cattle numbers. According to a report from CNBC dated October 25, 2023, beef prices had already hit record highs due to a dwindling cattle supply—a trend that has only intensified into 2025.
Market analysts cited by CNBC attribute this shrinkage to a combination of drought conditions in key ranching states like Texas and Oklahoma, which have reduced grazing land, and a wave of rancher retirements with fewer young farmers stepping in to replace them.
“The cattle herd is at its lowest level in decades,” one expert told CNBC, noting that rebuilding the population could take years.
Reuters echoed this sentiment in a recent article, highlighting how extreme weather and rising feed costs have forced many ranchers to cull their herds rather than expand them.
The piece, published earlier this month, pointed to U.S. Department of Agriculture data showing a 3% drop in cattle inventory from 2024 to 2025—the steepest annual decline since the 1980s.
This scarcity has created a supply bottleneck, driving wholesale beef prices up by nearly 20% compared to last year, per Reuters’ analysis.
For restaurants, the cattle shortage directly impacts their bottom line. The Wall Street Journal reported that steakhouses and casual dining chains alike are struggling to maintain profitability as beef costs soar.
“We’re seeing menu prices for a ribeye jump from $35 to $50 in some places,” a restaurant owner in Chicago told the Journal. “We either pass that cost on to customers or eat the loss—and neither option is sustainable long-term.”
The Associated Press (AP) added another layer to the story, noting that smaller, independent eateries are particularly vulnerable.
In an article dated March 18, 2025, AP interviewed a restaurateur in Kansas City who said, “We’ve had to cut portion sizes and push chicken specials just to keep people coming through the door.”
The piece also highlighted how some chains are turning to imported beef from countries like Australia, though tariffs and shipping delays complicate that workaround.
Beyond the cattle shortage, rising input costs are exacerbating the problem. CNN reported that expenses for feed, fuel, and labor have spiked, putting additional pressure on beef producers and, by extension, restaurants.
“It’s a perfect storm,” an agricultural economist told CNN.
“Even if we had more cattle, the cost to raise them would still push prices up.” The article noted that fertilizer prices, critical for growing cattle feed like corn and hay, have risen 15% since mid-2024 due to global supply chain disruptions.
The New York Times, explored how these dynamics are reshaping consumer behavior.
With steak prices at grocery stores climbing—USDA Choice sirloin now averages $12 per pound, up from $9 a year ago—diners are rethinking their habits. “People are opting for pork or plant-based options,” a market analyst told the Times. “Steak is becoming a luxury item again.”
Experts across these reports agree on one sobering point: the cattle shortage won’t resolve soon.
BBC News explained that rebuilding herds is a slow process, with gestation periods and growth cycles meaning it could take three to five years for supply to stabilize.
“Until then, expect volatility,” a commodities trader told the BBC. Fox News, in a similar vein, quoted a Texas rancher on March 17, 2025, saying, “We’re in a hole, and it’s going to take a lot more than rain to dig out.”
