Egg prices in the United States are projected to surge by over 40% in 2025, primarily due to the ongoing avian influenza outbreak severely impacting poultry populations.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a 41.1% increase in egg prices this year, following a 53% rise over the past year.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has led to the culling of millions of egg-laying birds, drastically reducing egg production.
In January 2025 alone, approximately 18.8 million commercial egg layers were affected by HPAI, marking the highest monthly total since the virus began spreading rapidly.
In response to the shortages and escalating prices, major retailers such as Trader Joe’s and Walmart have implemented purchase limits to manage consumer demand and prevent stockpiling.
Walmart has also partnered with artificial intelligence company Helios to monitor and anticipate price changes, aiming to minimize supply chain disruptions.
The Trump administration has announced a plan to invest an additional $1 billion to combat the crisis, focusing on bolstering farm biosecurity, providing aid to affected farmers, researching vaccines, and considering imports.
However, experts debate the effectiveness of these measures in rapidly reducing prices, given the challenges of vaccine development and the temporary nature of price relief through imports.
The poultry industry has expressed concerns about implementing a bird flu vaccine, citing potential issues such as the vaccine’s effectiveness against all virus strains, costs, logistics, and the possibility of vaccinated chickens being asymptomatic carriers.
Additionally, many countries might refuse poultry imports from vaccinated flocks, risking the U.S. poultry industry’s export market.
As egg prices continue to rise, consumers and businesses are feeling the impact. For instance, Waffle House, a popular breakfast chain, has added a 50-cent surcharge per egg to its menu items to offset increased costs.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service notes that retail egg prices will remain volatile, with month-to-month changes due to ongoing outbreaks. Prices are expected to stay elevated until egg supply increases sufficiently to relieve market pressures.
In summary, the avian influenza outbreak has significantly disrupted the U.S. egg supply chain, leading to soaring prices and prompting both governmental and industry responses to address the crisis.
