Round after round after round of Arctic air is poised to plunge into the central and eastern United States. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that each outbreak of Arctic air has the potential to bring colder air farther south than the previous round and will lead to a major surge in energy demands and the risk of freeze-related damage in the Southern states.
The magnitude and extent of the Arctic air will build into the first full week of January and linger through the middle of the month and will, at times, affect more than 250 million people living in more than 40 states in the Central and Eastern regions.
“At this time, it looks like there will be at least three major blasts of Arctic air that will affect the Southern states,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
“The first outbreak will linger into Jan. 4, the second on Jan. 7-8 and then the third round on Jan. 11-12.” Additional rounds of Arctic air may follow but be directed more toward the Midwest and Northeast.
Each wave will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air, keeping air temperatures well below the norm for the first month of the year.
Even though each layer of cold coming in may stop short of the most extreme conditions in the past 10-15 years, the number of days spent below the historical average will add up in dozens of states from just east of the Rockies to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
“This is not record-setting cold, but the longevity of these cold waves, combined with snow on the ground in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, will lead to a prolonged surge in heating demand,” AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Joe Lundberg said.
The prolonged nature of the cold, as a result, could end up making a splash on the record books, making it the coldest January in over a decade.
“This could end up being the coldest January since 2011 for the U.S. as a whole,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.
Another key factor as to how far to the south and east the extreme cold will be able to penetrate is that multiple storms are forecast to produce extensive swaths of snow and ice from the Great Plains to the Midwest, East and even well into the Southern states.
Snow cover minimizes the warming effects of the ground and acts as a tundralike surface for the cold air to expand upon. In the southern U.S., exposed or poorly insulated homes and buildings are at high risk of frozen and bursting pipes with the potential for major water damage.
The persistence and magnitude of the cold can be enough to cause heat pump systems to struggle to keep up. As energy demands increase, the strain on the electric grid could force rolling blackouts.
Due to the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures, cold-sensitive crops in the Gulf Coast states will be at risk from damage.
“At this time, the areas that are likely to be most vulnerable for crop-damaging freezes will be in central and northern Florida, southern Louisiana and parts of central Texas,” DaSilva said. “We are closely watching South Texas and South Florida for any indication of lower temperatures that could be damaging to agriculture.”
