Hurricane Milton will remain a powerful, potentially deadly and destructive force as it roars ashore in the Florida Peninsula along the central Gulf coast around 11 p.m. EDT Wednesday, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn.
Milton intensified rapidly and nearly tripled in strength in less than 36 hours from Sunday to Monday, eventually becoming a Category 5 with winds of 180 mph while spinning off Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Category 5 is the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
“Some changes within the eye caused the storm’s peak wind intensity to ease on Monday night, but as anticipated, some regaining of strength occurred on Tuesday afternoon,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Milton regained Category 5 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.
“On Wednesday, as Milton encounters some wind shear and another eyewall replacement cycle, it is forecast to expand in size and lose some wind intensity,” DaSilva added, Milton will make landfall as a formidable Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale late Wednesday evening,” DaSilva added.
However, hurricane experts continue to maintain that Milton will strike with the impacts of a 5 on AccuWeather’s RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which takes into account storm surge, flooding rainfall, population affected and economic impacts above and beyond the Saffir-Simpson scale, which takes into account only maximum sustained winds.
Only if Milton’s peak winds ease more than anticipated with a less-defined eye or should Milton track into a low population zone farther to the south along the Florida coast would the RealImpact™ scale be less than a 5.
The RealImpact™ of 5 is highly scrutinized by AccuWeather meteorologists and has only been designated for storms such as Ian, Dorian, Harvey, Sandy, Katrina and Andrew, so this truly would be a once-in-a-lifetime event for the millions of people in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota area.
By far, the most dangerous aspect of Milton as it approaches the Gulf coast of the Florida Peninsula will be storm surge. Because of the near-perpendicular angle at which Milton will roar ashore, the storm surge near and south of where the eye makes landfall will be maximized along the barrier islands and funneled into the many inland bays in the region.
