(OPINION) The situation in the Middle East has started to spiral completely out of control, and it appears that just about everyone is bracing for a major escalation.
The Chinese are telling their citizens to leave Israel, the Biden administration is sending more troops to the region, and the Israeli government has suddenly decided that now is the time to declare a “special situation on the home front” which grants the IDF extensive authority to issue orders to the general public. Obviously all three have become convinced that something really big is coming. What do they know that the rest of us do not?
In recent days, many countries have instructed their citizens to leave Lebanon, but I was quite stunned to learn that the Chinese have also told their citizens to evacuate from Israel…
China’s embassy in Israel has asked its citizens to leave the country and return to China in a Sunday night statement.
The embassy added that Chinese citizens should not travel to Israel for the time being.
I think that this is actually a prudent move.
When all-out war erupts, there won’t be anywhere in the entire region that is truly safe.
As I have discussed previously, U.S. citizens have already been instructed to leave Lebanon, and now more U.S. troops are being deployed to the region…
The U.S. is sending troops to the Middle East in response to the surge in violence between Israel and Hezbollah and as the region teeters on the edge of an all-out war.
The Pentagon announced on Monday that ‘additional’ service members would be deployed to join the 40,000 already stationed in the region along with a dozen warships and fighter jet squadrons.
Most Americans don’t realize this yet, but when all-out war erupts in the Middle East the U.S. will be involved.
In Israel, a “special situation on the home front” has been officially declared for the entire country…
On Monday evening, the government approved the declaration of a “special situation on the home front” throughout Israel, following the most intense day of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah since October.
The declaration of the “special situation” significantly expands the IDF’s powers to issue instructions to the Israeli public, allowing it to ban gatherings, limit studies, and issue “additional instructions required to save lives.”
This is a really big deal.
Just imagine what it would be like if the president of the United States gave the U.S. military special authority over cities throughout the United States.
This is quite a dramatic move, and so Israeli officials must believe that all-out war is imminent.
Of course at this point it is difficult to see how an all-out war can be avoided. On Monday, we witnessed “the deadliest day of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah since 2006”…
Missiles slammed into southern Lebanon, shattering the early-morning silence Monday and reportedly killing more than 490 people as Israel said it was targeting Hezbollah weapons hidden in residential buildings.
The explosions came as Israel heralded a new wave of attacks on the Iran-backed group in Lebanon, warning civilians to flee from any buildings or areas where the organization had weapons or fighters positioned.
Lebanon’s health ministry said the strikes killed 492 people, including 35 children and 58 women, and wounded 1,645 people, The Associated Press reported.
Monday marked the deadliest day of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah since 2006. The death toll also surpassed the deaths from the 2020 explosion at the Port of Beirut that killed nearly 200 people, injured thousands and devastated entire neighborhoods in the Lebanese capital.
We are so close to the unthinkable, and Israel has some decisions to make.
At this point, experts are telling us that Israel has three main options…
There are three options for Israeli planners to consider: air strikes; a massive, Gaza-style invasion; and a “limited” incursion to set up a “buffer zone”.
The first is, of course, the safest. Mr Gallant, the defence minister – no dove, even by Israeli standards – is said to have argued for this option.
It does not commit troops on the ground, avoids the risk of a quagmire, and would not require committing ground forces while the main effort in Gaza (and, increasingly, the West Bank) is still under way.
I would disagree with that assessment.
A “limited” incursion simply is not possible. Hezbollah has stated that it will be all-out war the moment that the IDF crosses into southern Lebanon, and I believe that they are deadly serious about that.
When all-out war erupts, Israel won’t just be fighting Hezbollah. In such a scenario, Israel will be fighting Hezbollah’s entire alliance…
Israel would also have to contend with Hezbollah’s strategic depth. The group is part of an Iran-led axis of militants spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq. Some of these groups have increased coordination significantly since October, when Israel launched a war in Gaza after Hamas-led militants attacked the country. This axis is known in Israel as the “ring of fire.”
For nearly a year, Hezbollah’s partners in the region have been engaged in a simmering conflict with Israel and its allies. Yemen’s Houthis have sporadically fired at vessels in the Red Sea, an artery of global trade, as well as on Israel.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of hardline Shia factions, has also launched attacks on US positions in that country. The axis has conditioned the cessation of those hostilities on a ceasefire in Gaza, rebranding themselves as a “supportive front” for Palestinians in Gaza, as described by a senior Hezbollah leader.
Israel possesses far superior weaponry, but the combined forces of the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” would vastly outnumber Israeli forces.
A former Major General in the IDF has told the Jerusalem Post that an all-out war with the entire alliance could have disastrous consequences for Israel…
Itzhak Brik, a former Major General in the IDF, told the Jerusalem Post that a full-scale war with Iran and its proxies could ultimately result in the destruction of the state of Israel.
‘Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel, which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis.
‘Population centres, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure… A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,’ he concluded.
Of course the truth is that Benjamin Netanyahu would never allow things to get that far.
If push comes to shove, he will not hesitate to use ultra-powerful weapons that the other side does not possess.
So let us hope that one side or the other backs down before we reach a point of no return.
We are also rapidly reaching a point of no return in Ukraine.
The Ukrainians want to use long-range missiles provided by NATO to strike targets all over Russia, and many NATO officials are very much in support of this dangerous proposal…
“Every nation that is attacked has the right to defend itself,” said Admiral Rob Bauer, speaking at the close of the NATO committee’s annual meeting. “And that right doesn’t stop at the border of your own nation.”
I wonder if the shoe were on the other foot and Russia was sending long-range missiles to Mexico with instructions and training on how to use them against American cities if the esteemed admiral would say Mexico had a “right” to fire those Russian missiles northward.
The consequences of these comments are absolutely stunning, and yet they are made with the flippancy of a Cub Scout leader deciding which is the best way to sharpen a pocket knife. (CONTINUE)
