(OPINION) A noted historian, demographer, and author is warning that the United States is on the verge of another civil war.
Neil Howe, who co-authored the book “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy,” noted that four out of five predictors for a crisis have already happened, leaving the country on the edge of unparalleled internal conflict. (Related: The catalyst for the next US civil war?)
In a recent interview with the Daily Signal, Howe summarized the factors he considers are pushing the American nation toward a possible civil war.
He said the first of four that have come to pass is a “crisis over debt,” which Howe referred to as a “new tea party movement,” which manifested during the 2010 political conflicts under the same name.
The second is a WMD (weapon of mass destruction) attack on a major American city, this being the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attack on New York City. Howe said the terrorist attacks accomplished this prediction by bringing destruction and enduring consequences.
The third was the pandemic, specifically the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic which swept across the world beginning in 2020.
The fourth one was Russia invading a former soviet republic. This was fulfilled when Russia began its special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, and it connects with his prediction of international tensions reaching a fever pitch.
Howe said the only remaining predictor is a nullification crisis, where “one or more of the states would actually nullify federal regulation, which could lead to a new secession movement.”
Such an event could be the tipping point that drops the country into chaos.
Howe’s theory is based upon the concept of “fourth turnings,” which are cyclical events that happen every 80 to 100 years and set off major turmoil like the Great Depression or World War II.
He believes the U.S. is currently experiencing one of these fourth turnings, characterized by today’s intense political polarization and cultural clashes.
Howe said the divisions between “red” and “blue” America have increased and become so deep that each side now sees the other as “perfectly evil.” He stressed that while democracy serves well for settling ordinary issues, it struggles to negotiate deeply personal and identity-driven fights.
“When most of what you’re talking about is the width of sidewalks and the diameter of sewer pipes, just coordination issues, democracy works really well. But when you’re talking about issues that virtually define who you are, it doesn’t work,” Howe said. “You are not going to give up everything you believe in just because you came up three votes short.”
