(OPINION) Bitcoin and crypto prices have surged this year as the U.S. dollar index falls to year-to-date lows.
The bitcoin price is trading around $60,000 per bitcoin, up from January lows of under $40,000, as traders bet a fresh injection of liquidity by the Federal Reserve will put the bitcoin and crypto market on the “cusp” of a major move.
Now, as China gears up to drop a bitcoin price bombshell, fears are swirling the U.S. dollar is on “the verge of a total collapse,” setting up the bitcoin price for “a critical tipping point.”
“The U.S. Dollar Index just hit a new 2024 low [and it’s] actually still relatively high, but it looks like it’s on the verge of a total collapse,” economist and gold bull Peter Schiff posted to X.
“The index could easily sink below 90 before year-end, challenging the 2020 low,” Schiff, the founder of money manager Euro Pacific Asset Management and a bitcoin and crypto skeptic, later added.
“I think that low will be breached in 2025, triggering a U.S. dollar crisis, crashing the economy, and sending consumer prices and long-term interest rates soaring.”
Last month, Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech during the annual economic symposium of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, struck a dovish tone and cued up a September interest rate cut, driving down the U.S. dollar.
“It’s been a tough summer for the greenback,” Neil Roarty, analyst at investment platform Stocklytics, said in emailed comments. “As recently as April, dollar dominance looked unstoppable as its price soared versus almost all global currencies. Now it’s at 2024 lows against the euro, the pound and the yen.”
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) July meeting minutes had earlier revealed policymakers are more dovish than previously thought, suggesting interest rates could come down sharply after rocketing to 23-year highs at a historical pace through the Biden administration as inflation spiraled to highs not see since the 1980s.
The Fed is now widely expected to kick off a rate-cutting cycle at its two-day monetary policy meeting that begins on September 17.
“There’s now speculation [interest rates] might come faster than initially predicted,” Roarty said. “As many as 100 basis points could be knocked off current rates by the end of the year.
This will cool dollar expectations for the rest of 2024, but it’s worth keeping a close eye on how other central bankers react. That all important rate gap— the difference in interest rates between countries—could be the driver of some significant currency volatility over the coming months. Strap in for what could be a bumpy ride.”
In Europe, the E.U.’s European Central Bank and the U.K.’s Bank of England are both expected to further cut rates after beginning loosening cycles in recent months while questions remain over the Bank of Japan after it caused a global market meltdown when it surprised traders with an interest rate hike in July.
