British and American spy chiefs have issues a warning over what they call an unprecedented range of threats to the international order from China and Russia at a period of heightened conflict and polarisation.
MI6 Chief Richard Moore and CIA Director William Burns told an audience at an event in London on Saturday that war, sabotage and the alignment of autocratic leaders are among the mounting threats to Western hegemony.
They cited difficulty in de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine, the ‘elusive goal’ of peace in the Middle East and the rise of China in the challenges ahead.
Burns, 68, revealed that Vladimir Putin’s ‘sabre rattling’ very nearly saw the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in late 2022, urging that there was still a ‘genuine risk’ to the Russian threat, despite its difficulty in Ukraine.
The CIA chief also warned of the growing and ‘troubling’ defence relationship between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea that he said threatens both Ukraine and Western allies in the Middle East.
Moore, 61, added that it would be wrong to ‘confuse a tight grip on power with a stable grip’ in Russia’s case, suggesting Russian intelligence had ‘gone a bit feral’ and describing sabotage operations across Europe as ‘reckless’ as relations sour.
Richard Moore, the head of MI6, admitted at the FT Weekend Festival at London’s Kenwood House that ‘Russian intelligence service has gone a bit feral’ in his assessment of the conflict.
But he suggested that Ukraine’s recent incursion into Kursk oblast was a ‘significant achievement’ that could change the narrative of the war, though it was ‘too early’ to say how long Kyiv would be able to hold its position.
He added that Kyiv’s surprise August offensive was ‘typically audacious and bold on the part of the Ukrainians, to try and change the game.’
He said the incursion – which Ukraine said has captured about 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) of Russian territory – had ‘brought the war home to ordinary Russians.’
It has yet to be seen whether Ukraine can turn the gains into a long-term advantage.
So far the offensive has not drawn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s focus away from eastern Ukraine, where his forces are closing in on the strategically situated city of Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly pressed allies to let Kyiv use Western-supplied missiles to strike deep inside Russia and hit sites from which Moscow launches aerial attacks.
While some countries, including Britain, are thought to tacitly support the idea, others including Germany and the U.S. are reluctant.
U.S. President Joe Biden has allowed Ukraine to fire U.S.-provided missiles into Russia in self-defense, but the distance has been largely limited to cross-border targets deemed a direct threat, out of concerns about further escalating the conflict.
Ahead of their joint appearance, the two spymasters wrote an opinion piece for the Financial Times, calling for a cease-fire in Israel’s war against Hamas and saying their agencies had ‘exploited our intelligence channels to push hard for restraint and de-escalation.’
Burns has been heavily involved in efforts to broker an end to the fighting, traveling to Egypt in August for high-level talks aimed at bringing about a hostage deal and at least a temporary halt to the conflict.
So far there has been no agreement, though United States officials insist a deal is close. Biden said recently that ‘just a couple more issues’ remain unresolved. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has said reports of a breakthrough are ‘exactly inaccurate.’
‘I cannot tell you how close we are right now,’ Burns told the London audience. He said negotiators are working on new, detailed proposals that would be presented within several days.
Burns said that while 90% of the text has been agreed between the warring sides, ‘the last 10% is the last 10% for a reason, because it’s the hardest part to do.’
Burns said ending the conflict would require ‘some hard choices and some difficult compromises’ from both Israel and Hamas.
The U.S. and the United Kingdom are both staunch allies of Israel, though London diverged from Washington on Monday by suspending some arms exports to Israel because of the risk they could be used to break international law.
The intelligence chiefs’ speech came ahead of a busy week of trans-Atlantic diplomacy that includes a meeting in Washington between Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The White House said the talks would touch on Ukraine, Gaza and other issues.
In another sign of the intensification of the ‘special relationship,’ U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also travel to London early next week for talks with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and other officials.
The State Department said Blinken would participate in the U.S.-U.K. strategic dialogue on Monday and Tuesday that will cover Ukraine, the Middle East, China and the Indo-Pacific.
In their FT article, Burns and Moore stressed the strength of the trans-Atlantic relationship in the face of ‘an unprecedented array of threats,’ including an assertive Russia, an ever-more powerful China and the constant drumbeat of international terrorism – all complicated by rapid technological change.
They highlighted Russia’s ‘reckless campaign of sabotage’ across Europe and the ‘cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us.’
