California could be at risk of a generation-defining massive earthquake, according to geophysicists, following 2024’s record number of mini-quakes across the state.
The warning comes just days after a 4.4 magnitude earthquake rocked the greater Los Angeles area on Monday emanating from a site close to LA’s Chinatown.
‘2024 has had more earthquakes than any year we’ve seen since 1988,’ Caltech geophysicist Dr Lucy Jones told reporters. ‘We should expect this to continue.’
Experts believe a major quake in Southern California- usually defined as 7.0 and up – could kill at least 1,800, leave 50,000 injured and cause more than $200 billion in damage.
Dr Jones noted that it’s a common misconception that spike in mini-earthquakes relieve tension in the plate tectonics underground, leaving a region more calm and less prone to ‘The Big One.’
She warned locals that the opposite is true.
‘The most constant feature of earthquakes is the relative number of large to small,’ Dr Jones told local KTLA 5 Morning News on Tuesday.
‘For every magnitude seven, you have 10 magnitude sixes, 100 magnitude fives, 1,000 magnitude fours, etc.’
‘So, if your rate of [magnitude] fours goes up, your chance of having a bigger one would go up by about the same amount,’ the CalTech researcher explained.
2024’s wave of small earthquakes, in other words, portends a coming massive high-magnitude quake sometime soon, in the opinion of most seismology experts.
The past year’s worth of mini-quakes have brought to a close a relative era of calm in Southern California, which has seen only five or so magnitude four earthquakes each year for the past two decades.
In prior decades stretching all the way back to 1932, the sun-soaked region averaged closer to 10 or 12 earthquakes of magnitude four and above each year.
‘So, this is an active year, much like we used to see,’ Jones said. With over four months left to go, 2024 has already seen 13 quakes at four or above.
