Over the next 30 years, Texas and other parts of the central U.S. are at risk of being exposed to extreme heat — temperatures exceeding 125 degrees. The human body can no longer tolerate heat at that levels.
A study published in 2010 estimated that a wet-bulb temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit at 100% humidity, or 115 degrees at 50% humidity, would be the upper limit of safety, beyond which the human body can no longer cool itself by evaporating sweat from the surface of the body to maintain a stable body core temperature.
Another way to calculate how dangerous the heat can be is with the heat index. The heat index is what the temperature feels like to the human body when combined with humidity and air temperature.
According to Forth Worth Telegram, A climate study found that an “Extreme Heat Belt” is forming through the middle of the United States. Texas is part of the Extreme Heat Belt, an area of the U.S.
highly vulnerable to extreme heat exposure, according to the report by the First Street Foundation, a climate assessment nonprofit. At least one day a year, there’s a high likelihood that Texas will hit 125 degrees, the National Weather Service’s extreme heat threshold.
“It’s gotten hotter now than it was in the past, but we’re not done with the increasing exposure to extreme heat,” Jeremy Porter, First Street’s chief research officer, told the Star-Telegram. “It’s going to continue to increase into the future.” Heat of this magnitude have been recorded in parts of the world.
A report in a British newspaper chronicled what it is like when temperatures soar to 126 degrees — reporting that it was too hot “you can’t even stay on your feet,” a resident of Jacobabad, Pakistan, told The Telegraph in 2021.
Over the next three decades, Texas will see more triple-digit days, according to the research from First Street Foundation. Out of the 20 counties across the United States expected to experience the greatest number of days above 100 degrees annually, 16 are in Texas.
Three South Texas counties — Starr, Zapata and Brooks — top the list. Starr County is expected to see 109 triple-digit days in 2023, growing to 131 by 2053, an increase of 22 days. That could be more dangerous if they occur consecutively. The county is expected to experience 34 consecutive triple-digit days in 2023, growing to 49 days in 30 years.
The Texas Panhandle, as well as North and West Texas, will see less exposure to extreme heat relative to the rest of the state. Texas will continue to see temperature increases over the next 30 years, with Aransas County in South Texas facing the largest increase in hot days between now and 2053. In 2023, Aransas County can expect a week at or above 107.6 degrees, which will grow to 28 days in 30 years.
