(OPINION) In my 3 decade-long career being a weather forecaster, and now Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist, I have never observed so many of Earth’s vital signs blinking red.
According to WFLA, Meteorologists and climate scientists all around the world are in awe by the simultaneous literal “off the charts” records being broken. Yes, it’s climate change.
The steady trend of rising temperatures over the last few decades has placed Earth’s baseline climate so high that achieving these extremes – which used to be rare if not unheard of – is now expected when conditions are ripe. And right now they are, with El Niño’s added heat and several other concurrent, varying natural climate patterns.
So, to be more specific, it’s climate change – with other natural patterns piled on top.
With El Niño now in place, we are getting a glimpse of just how far we can force the climate system, with never before observed heights achieved. Many more are on the way for 2023-2024 as El Niño gets stronger and more heat is released from the oceans into the Atmosphere.
From ocean temperatures, to sea ice, to land ice to emissions from wildfire smoke, the charts below speak for themselves. Let’s start with ocean temperatures.
Due to a combination of factors, the North Atlantic Ocean is way beyond record hot right now. The kind of heat that would only be found once in 10s or 100s of thousands of years in a climate before human-caused warming took hold.
Take a look at the North Atlantic sea surface temperature departure from normal in 2023 compared to previous years.
The Atlantic has warmed ~2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900, due to warming from emissions of greenhouse gases due to the burning of fossil fuels and also, more recently, the decrease in air pollution, allowing more sunlight through.
In the shorter term, on top of that, we have a weaker Atlantic high meaning weaker tropical low-level winds (Trade winds), and thus, less dust stirred up off Africa. Less dust over the Tropical Atlantic skies means more sun gets through and it warms the surface.
In the below comparison, from Dr. Michael Lowry, you can see the absence of dust compared to normal. Use the slider bar to view the eastern Tropical Atlantic. (Also notice the excess smoke in the North Atlantic from the Canadian fires. We will return to that).
