(OPINION) Is the U.S. economy on track for a recession? According to Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf, there is no doubt that a downturn is looming on the horizon. With the Federal Reserve moving rapidly to tame sky-high inflation by aggressively raising the benchmark federal funds rate, Scharf said that it is likely there will be some economic fallout.
“It’s going to be hard to avoid some kind of recession,” he said during a Wall Street Journal live event. Still, the outlook is not entirely bleak: With consumers still spending and businesses financially healthy by most measures, the bank’s chief executive said it will likely be a mild downturn. “The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is if there is one, is short and not all that deep,” he said.
The Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates twice so far in 2022 in a bid to cool the economy to deal with rampant inflation. Federal data shows that inflation rose 8.3 percent from April 2021 to April 2022, reaching 40-year highs. With the spike in interest rates and inflation, some analysts and economists have questioned whether the United States is careening toward a recession.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there may be some “pain” that is “associated” with higher interest rates, which would, according to him, reduce inflation and curb demand. Powell, however, said that there is no recession on the horizon, saying that strong labor markets and consumer spending are high points.
“It will be challenging, it won’t be easy. No one here thinks that it will be easy. Nonetheless, we think there are pathways … for us to get there,” Powell told the Marketplace business news website last week. “Whether we can execute a soft landing or not, it may actually depend on factors that we don’t control,” he added. Powell said in the interview that price increases are, in part, due to supply chain issues, although he didn’t delve into specifics about why.
