(OPINION) On May 9 — known as Victory Day in Russia — President Vladimir Putin will need to make a bombastic and very public display to suggest he is winning the war in Ukraine according to CNN.
But more than two months in, the war is going far from how Russia originally envisaged. May 9, then, might present Putin the occasion to declare a symbolic “victory” over Ukraine — a great demonstration of patriotic ecstasy aimed at shoring up his manipulated, sanction-weary audience.
The date marks the day Nazi Germany surrendered to Soviet forces (the day after its capitulation to the Western allies, which is why the UK, US, and their allies commemorate victory on May 8). Moscow initially partnered with Nazi Berlin to divide eastern Europe between the two totalitarian regimes.
But after that partnership ended with the German invasion of the USSR in 1941, the Soviet human contribution to defeating Germany — backed by enormous shipments of food aid and military equipment from the UK, US, and Canada — was critical.
With Moscow’s big Victory Day parade set for May 9, commemorating the 1945 surrender of Nazi Germany, observers expect Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to rattle some sabers. Putin has nothing else to offer in his ongoing effort to “de-Nazify” Ukraine—no major victories or battlefield trophies are available.
According to Forbes, Escalation is Putin’s only option. But Putin has few sabers left outside of Russia’s strategic arsenal and the threat of an unpopular full-scale national mobilization. Odds are that Putin will rattle both by declaring a symbolic War on the West.
Ukraine was meant to be a showcase for Russia’s advanced weaponry and authoritarian government. But Ukraine has demonstrated that both are hollow. Russian military systems have failed in Ukraine, and, even worse for Russia, much of the market supporting ongoing global investment in Russia’s Soviet-era arsenal has disappeared. Throughout the world, surplus Soviet weapons are flowing into Ukraine. Ammunition shortages and missing Soviet-era replacement parts are spooking potential new customers.
