The Port of Los Angeles, a critical hub for U.S. trade, is bracing for a significant decline in shipping volume, with a projected 35% drop in cargo from Asia next week, according to Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director.

This sharp reduction is attributed to escalating tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by the Trump administration, which have disrupted global supply chains and prompted major American retailers to halt shipments from China.

The fallout from these tariffs is raising concerns about potential economic ripple effects, including higher consumer prices, reduced product availability, and job losses in the transportation and retail sectors.

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory levies from China exceeding 100% on many U.S. products.

This escalation has led to a significant pullback in trade, with shipments from China, which account for approximately 45% of the Port of Los Angeles’ business, plummeting.

Seroka, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, noted that the port’s optimizer, which tracks loadings in Asia, forecasts a cargo volume decline of over 35% compared to the same period in 2024.

“It’s a precipitous drop in volume with a number of major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs,” Seroka said.

The Los Angeles Times reported, that the port had already seen a surge in imports earlier in the year as companies stockpiled goods to preempt the tariffs.

However, with the tariffs now in effect, Seroka predicted to the Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners that “arrivals will drop by 35% as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased.”

The decline in shipping volume is expected to have far-reaching consequences. Seroka estimated that U.S. retailers have a buffer of five to seven weeks before the reduced shipments lead to noticeable shortages, thanks to earlier frontloading of inventory.

However, he warned of reduced product variety and higher prices, stating, “If you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours.

And for that one blue shirt that’s still left, you’ll see a price hike.”

Economists and industry experts are sounding alarms about the potential for a broader economic downturn.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, outlined a timeline where reduced imports from China could lead to layoffs in transportation and retail, empty shelves, and a recession by summer 2025.

The Reuters report on April 29, 2025, corroborated Seroka’s projections, highlighting the port’s expectation of a 25% cancellation rate for arriving ships in May, further straining port operations.

The Guardian noted that the number of vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles next week is down by nearly a third compared to the previous year, underscoring the severity of the trade disruption.

The San Pedro Bay ports, including Los Angeles and Long Beach, handle about a third of U.S. seaborne trade, making this slump a significant indicator of economic stress.

Industry and Consumer Impacts

Retailers and supply chain experts are grappling with the fallout. The CNBC article from April 24, 2025, highlighted warnings from major retailers like Walmart, IKEA, and Target, which have already reduced orders from China.

Jonathan Gold of the National Retail Federation noted that while frontloading has temporarily bolstered inventories, “cargo volumes will significantly decline because of canceled or delayed orders due to the tariffs.”

Consumers can expect fewer choices and higher prices, particularly for low-cost goods like toys, apparel, and budget home goods, which are heavily reliant on Chinese imports.

Small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly in the e-commerce sector, are also reeling.

Xin Wang, head of the Shenzhen Cross Border E-commerce Association, reported that 60-70% of surveyed companies are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, with many facing severe financial strain due to the tariffs.

In response to the tariffs, some transport companies are shifting to sourcing goods from Southeast Asia to fill ships, though Seroka cautioned that these alternatives are unlikely to compensate for the loss of Chinese shipments fully.

“Until some accord or framework can be reached with China, the volume coming out of there will be very light at best,” he said.

The CNBC survey from April 14, 2025, indicated that rather than reshoring manufacturing to the U.S., many companies are seeking low-tariff regimes in other countries, as the cost of domestic production remains prohibitive.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has warned that global economic output will slow as Trump’s tariffs impact trading partners worldwide.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the tariff situation as “unsustainable,” but with no substantial negotiations reported between the U.S. and China, the trade war shows no immediate signs of resolution.

The CNBC report from April 9, 2025, noted a 90-day pause on tariffs for some countries, but the 125% tariffs on Chinese goods remain firmly in place, further complicating recovery efforts.