Russia’s reported plot to justify a Ukraine invasion has sparked World War 3 fears as an expert warns escalating tensions may trigger a major conflict.
According to TheSun, Concerns are mounting after a US official reportedly revealed how intelligence suggests Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine in an attempt to create a reason to invade. Taras Kuzio, an associate research fellow at Henry Jackson Society, told The Sun US that a “major war” may erupt and said the “crisis is likely to escalate before it de-escalates.”
CNN reported that the allegation echoed a statement released by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense on Friday, which said that Russian special services are preparing provocations against Russian forces in an attempt to frame Ukraine. National security adviser Jake Sullivan hinted at the intelligence during a briefing with reporters on Thursday.
“Our intelligence community has developed information, which has now been downgraded, that Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating the pretext for an invasion,” Sullivan said on Thursday. “We saw this playbook in 2014. They are preparing this playbook again.”
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Friday that “the military units of the aggressor country and its satellites receive orders to prepare for such provocations.” For years, U.S. officials have tiptoed around the question of how much military support to provide to Ukraine, for fear of provoking Russia.
Now, in what would be a major turnaround, senior Biden administration officials are warning that the United States could throw its weight behind a Ukrainian insurgency should President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invade Ukraine.
How the United States, which just exited two decades of war in Afghanistan, might pivot to funding and supporting an insurgency from fighting one is still being worked out. But even a conversation about how far the United States would go to subvert Russian aims in the event of an invasion has revived the specter of a new Cold War and suddenly made real the prospect of the beginnings of a so-called great power conflict.